{"id":182,"date":"2026-05-22T11:04:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T05:04:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leadnews.net\/?p=182"},"modified":"2026-05-27T17:23:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T11:23:08","slug":"something-coming-what-scientists-know-about-a-potential-super-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leadnews.net\/?p=182","title":{"rendered":"Something coming: what scientists know about a potential ‘super’ El Nino"},"content":{"rendered":"

leadnews.PARIS, France, May 22, 2026 (AFP) – Forecasters say a potentially “super” El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific — but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.<\/em><\/p>\n

The fast-warming tropical Pacific is pointing to a major event but a crucial weakening of trade winds — capable of turbocharging or throttling the phenomenon — has yet to materialise.<\/em><\/p>\n

Scientists say these interactions are notoriously complex and difficult to predict — making it too early to confidently forecast how powerful this El Nino could become.<\/em><\/p>\n

– Flashing red –<\/em><\/p>\n

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is about an 80 percent chance of El Nino developing by July.<\/em><\/p>\n

Sea temperatures in key El Nino zones of the equatorial Pacific are rapidly rising, and an enormous pool of abnormally warm water is massing beneath the surface.<\/em><\/p>\n

Several leading weather services are predicting Pacific sea temperatures could surge 2.5C or more above average later this year — exceptionally high projections.<\/em><\/p>\n

Just three events — 1982\/83, 1997\/98 and 2015\/16 — have breached 2C since the first major El Nino recorded in the modern era in 1877\/78.<\/em><\/p>\n

Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, said this El Nino could be the strongest in decades or “even be of record strength”.<\/em><\/p>\n

“There’s definitely something coming. We’re very confident about that, and it looks like it will be a big event,” he told AFP.<\/em><\/p>\n

– Wily winds –<\/em><\/p>\n

NOAA forecasts a one-in-three chance this episode will hit 2C or above — crossing into what is dubbed “super El Nino” territory.<\/em><\/p>\n

But key pieces of the puzzle had yet to fall into place, said Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA’s El Nino-Southern Oscillation lead.<\/em><\/p>\n

El Ninos build strength as the ocean and atmosphere increasingly “couple” over the summer months, shifting air pressure, cloud patterns and winds.<\/em><\/p>\n

This feedback loop can turn a modest El Nino into a blockbuster event, supercharging heat and triggering chaotic weather worldwide.<\/em><\/p>\n

A hallmark of the strongest El Ninos is the weakening of trade winds that blow east to west across the equator.<\/em><\/p>\n

But those winds are unpredictable and can strengthen unexpectedly, said L’Heureux.<\/em><\/p>\n

“When that happens, it pauses the growth of El Nino or even reverses it,” she told AFP.<\/em><\/p>\n

“Ultimately the strength of this event will be likely influenced by these details, like the low-level winds, which we cannot predict many months in advance.”<\/em>
\n– Heat incoming \u2013<\/em><\/p>\n

El Nino tends to peak around December but ocean heat releases slowly and can drive up global temperatures the following years.<\/em><\/p>\n

Many record-hot years — including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024 — followed major El Nino events or developed alongside them.<\/em><\/p>\n

Climate scientists interviewed by AFP said global heat records could fall in 2026 — but 2027 was the year to watch.<\/em><\/p>\n

There “could easily be a new record level of global warmth in 2027” if an extreme El Nino takes shape this year, said Scaife.<\/em><\/p>\n

It remains unclear whether Earth’s warming is influencing El Nino intensity. The last event in 2023\/24 was weaker than episodes in 1982\/83 and 1997\/98, making any trend hard to pin down.<\/em><\/p>\n

Scientists stress that stronger El Ninos raise the odds of more severe impacts — but do not guarantee them.<\/em><\/p>\n

Yet even a weaker event now unfolds in a world transformed by climate change, with extra heat and moisture loading an already feverish atmosphere and oceans.<\/em><\/p>\n

That means El Nino’s impacts could become more extreme even if the phenomenon itself is not growing stronger.<\/em><\/p>\n

“The impacts of this El Nino — on things like rainfall and of course temperature — are riding on top of climate change, and could well be larger than anything we’ve seen in the past,” said Scaife.<\/em><\/p>\n

– Different world –<\/em><\/p>\n

Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns: drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted Indian monsoons, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.<\/em><\/p>\n

But climate change has shifted the baseline so dramatically that “history is a poorer guide for seasonal predictions,” climatologist Felicity Gamble at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology told AFP.<\/em><\/p>\n

“What happened during an El Nino event 20 years ago is probably quite different to how it might manifest these days.”<\/em><\/p>\n

Forecasts are also complicated by climate-driven ocean warming, which makes it easier to trigger El Nino conditions and harder to distinguish La Nina, its opposite cooling phase, against a hotter backdrop, Gamble said.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Bureau of Meteorology and NOAA have started filtering out background warming to improve forecast accuracy. Other weather agencies are adopting similar adjusted benchmarks.<\/em><\/p>\n

Even still, Australia is predicting El Nino could reach 2.8C — potentially a history-making event.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

leadnews.PARIS, France, May 22, 2026 (AFP) – Forecasters say a potentially “super” El Nino is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific — but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts. 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